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Theodore R Holford PhD

Susan Dwight Bliss Professor of Public Health (Biostatistics) and Professor of Statistics

Research Interests

Development and application of statistical methods in health research; Methodology for the analysis of spatial and temporal trends in disease

Current Projects

  • Modeling Interventions for Lung Cancer Mortality (CISNET)
  • Asthma Severity in Children and Fine Particle Composition
  • Environment, Gene and Testicular Cancer Risk
  • Spatial Risk Model for Ixodes Scapularis-bourne Borrelia
  • Intervenable Host Leishmania (Viannia) Interactions.

Research Summary

Professor Holford's current research extends his work with age-period-cohort models for population disease trends to analyses that quantify the impact of exposure to known risk factors on those trends. His work measuring the impact of cigarette smoking on lung cancer mortality is an example of this approach and it is part of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET). These models are useful in planning disease control strategies. Another focus of his research is the development of methods for studying the impact of environmental exposures on disease risk using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). These applications include the effect of exposure to traffic on asthma symptoms, and the prediction of areas that have habitats that are compatible with vectors for specific microbial diseases.


Selected Publications

  • Holford, T.R., Levy, D.T. Comparing the adequacy of carcinogenesis models in estimating U.S. population rates for lung cancer mortality. Risk Analysis 32: S179-S189, 2012.
  • Holford, T.R., Ebisu, K., McKay, L., Oh, C., Zhang, T. Yale Lung Cancer Model. Risk Analysis 32: S151-S165, 2012.
  • Holford, T.R., Clark, L. Development of the counterfactual smoking histories used to assess the effects of tobacco control. Risk Analysis 32: S39-S50, 2012
  • Moolgavkar, S.H., Holford, T.R., Levy, D.T., Kong, C.Y., Foy, M., Clarke, L., Jeon, J., Hazelton, W., Meza, R., Schultz, F., McCarthy, W., Boer, R., Gorlova, O., Gazelle, G.S., Kimmel, M., McMahon, P.M., de Koning, H.J., Feuer, E.J. Impact of the reduction in tobacco smoking on lung cancer mortality in the U.S. during the period 1975–2000. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 104: 541-548, 2012.
  • Ebisu, K., Holford, T.R., Belanger, K.D., Leaderer, B.P., Bell, M.L. Urban land-use and respiratory symptoms in infants. Environmental Research 111: 677-684, 2011.
  • Skene, K.J., Gent, J.F., McKay, L.A., Belanger, K., Leaderer, B.P., Holford, T.R. Modeling effects of traffic and landscape characteristics on ambient nitrogen dioxide levels in Connecticut. Atmospheric Environment 44: 5156-5164, 2010.
  • Allen, N.B., Holford, T.R., Bracken, M.B., Goldstein, L.B., Howard, G., Wang, Y., Lichtman, J.H. Geographic variation in one-year recurrent ischemic stroke among the elderly Medicare beneficiaries in the USA. Neuroepidemiology 34: 123-129, 2010.
  • Holford, T.R., Ebisu, K., McKay, L.A., Gent, J.F., Triche, E.W., Bracken, M.B., Leaderer, B.P. Integrated Exposure Modeling: A Model Using GIS and GLM. Statistics in Medicine 29: 166-129, 2010.
  • Valderrama-Ardila, C., Alexander, N., Ferro, C., Cadena, H., Marin, D., Holford, T.R., Munstermann, L.E., Ocampo, C.B. Environmental risk factors for the incidence of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in a sub-Andean zone of Colombia (Chaparral, Tolima). American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene 82(2):243-250, 2010.

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